{
  "avertissement": "Scénarios illustratifs de la présente étude publique. Les taux de substitution sont des hypothèses, sans probabilités estimées. Aucun lien automatique entre substitution mondiale et volumes nationaux.",
  "base": {
    "moutures_Mt": 4.649,
    "periode": "2024/25",
    "annee_calcul": 2025,
    "source": "S01 ICCO bulletin août 2026"
  },
  "formules": {
    "D0": "Dbase*(1+g)^(t-2025)",
    "E": "D0*s",
    "D1": "D0*(1-s)",
    "recettes": "(1-q)*(1-p)"
  },
  "hypotheses": {
    "limitee": [
      0.01,
      0.03,
      0.05
    ],
    "graduelle": [
      0.03,
      0.08,
      0.15
    ],
    "rupture": [
      0.06,
      0.15,
      0.3
    ]
  },
  "resultats": [
    {
      "annee": 2030,
      "trajectoire": "limitee",
      "croissance": 0,
      "substitution": 0.01,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.649,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 46.49,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.60251,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.01000000000000012
    },
    {
      "annee": 2035,
      "trajectoire": "limitee",
      "croissance": 0,
      "substitution": 0.03,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.649,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 139.46999999999997,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.50953,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.030000000000000027
    },
    {
      "annee": 2040,
      "trajectoire": "limitee",
      "croissance": 0,
      "substitution": 0.05,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.649,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 232.45000000000002,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.41655,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.050000000000000044
    },
    {
      "annee": 2030,
      "trajectoire": "graduelle",
      "croissance": 0,
      "substitution": 0.03,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.649,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 139.46999999999997,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.50953,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.030000000000000027
    },
    {
      "annee": 2035,
      "trajectoire": "graduelle",
      "croissance": 0,
      "substitution": 0.08,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.649,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 371.92,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.27708,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.08000000000000007
    },
    {
      "annee": 2040,
      "trajectoire": "graduelle",
      "croissance": 0,
      "substitution": 0.15,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.649,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 697.35,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 3.95165,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.15000000000000002
    },
    {
      "annee": 2030,
      "trajectoire": "rupture",
      "croissance": 0,
      "substitution": 0.06,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.649,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 278.93999999999994,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.37006,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.06000000000000005
    },
    {
      "annee": 2035,
      "trajectoire": "rupture",
      "croissance": 0,
      "substitution": 0.15,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.649,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 697.35,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 3.95165,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.15000000000000002
    },
    {
      "annee": 2040,
      "trajectoire": "rupture",
      "croissance": 0,
      "substitution": 0.3,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.649,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 1394.7,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 3.2542999999999997,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.30000000000000004
    },
    {
      "annee": 2030,
      "trajectoire": "limitee",
      "croissance": 0.01,
      "substitution": 0.01,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.8861457229149,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 48.861457229149,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.837284265685751,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.04049994959899994
    },
    {
      "annee": 2035,
      "trajectoire": "limitee",
      "croissance": 0.01,
      "substitution": 0.03,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.13538826103669,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 154.0616478311007,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.981326613205589,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.07148346164886821
    },
    {
      "annee": 2040,
      "trajectoire": "limitee",
      "croissance": 0.01,
      "substitution": 0.05,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.397344673515124,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 269.8672336757562,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 5.127477439839367,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.10292050760149873
    },
    {
      "annee": 2030,
      "trajectoire": "graduelle",
      "croissance": 0.01,
      "substitution": 0.03,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.8861457229149,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 146.584371687447,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.7395613512274535,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.01947974859700019
    },
    {
      "annee": 2035,
      "trajectoire": "graduelle",
      "croissance": 0.01,
      "substitution": 0.08,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.13538826103669,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 410.8310608829352,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.724557200153755,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.01625235537830827
    },
    {
      "annee": 2040,
      "trajectoire": "graduelle",
      "croissance": 0.01,
      "substitution": 0.15,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.397344673515124,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 809.6017010272686,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.587742972487855,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.013176387935501133
    },
    {
      "annee": 2030,
      "trajectoire": "rupture",
      "croissance": 0.01,
      "substitution": 0.06,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 4.8861457229149,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 293.168743374894,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.592976979540006,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.0120505529060001
    },
    {
      "annee": 2035,
      "trajectoire": "rupture",
      "croissance": 0.01,
      "substitution": 0.15,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.13538826103669,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 770.3082391555035,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.3650800218811865,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.061071193400476176
    },
    {
      "annee": 2040,
      "trajectoire": "rupture",
      "croissance": 0.01,
      "substitution": 0.3,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.397344673515124,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 1619.2034020545373,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 3.7781412714605866,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.18732173124100093
    },
    {
      "annee": 2030,
      "trajectoire": "limitee",
      "croissance": 0.02,
      "substitution": 0.01,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.1328716540768005,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 51.328716540768006,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 5.081542937536033,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.0930399951680001
    },
    {
      "annee": 2035,
      "trajectoire": "limitee",
      "croissance": 0.02,
      "substitution": 0.03,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.667105058555626,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 170.01315175666878,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 5.497091906798958,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.18242458739491463
    },
    {
      "annee": 2040,
      "trajectoire": "limitee",
      "croissance": 0.02,
      "substitution": 0.05,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 6.25694190486888,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 312.847095243444,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 5.944094809625436,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.2785749214079234
    },
    {
      "annee": 2030,
      "trajectoire": "graduelle",
      "croissance": 0.02,
      "substitution": 0.03,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.1328716540768005,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 153.986149622304,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.978885504454496,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.07095837910400005
    },
    {
      "annee": 2035,
      "trajectoire": "graduelle",
      "croissance": 0.02,
      "substitution": 0.08,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.667105058555626,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 453.3684046844501,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 5.213736653871177,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.1214748663951768
    },
    {
      "annee": 2040,
      "trajectoire": "graduelle",
      "croissance": 0.02,
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      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 6.25694190486888,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 938.5412857303319,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 5.318400619138548,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.1439880875755104
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    {
      "annee": 2030,
      "trajectoire": "rupture",
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      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.1328716540768005,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 307.972299244608,
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      "variation_vs_base": 0.03783595500800008
    },
    {
      "annee": 2035,
      "trajectoire": "rupture",
      "croissance": 0.02,
      "substitution": 0.15,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 5.667105058555626,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 850.0657587833439,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.817039299772282,
      "variation_vs_base": 0.036145256995543606
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    {
      "annee": 2040,
      "trajectoire": "rupture",
      "croissance": 0.02,
      "substitution": 0.3,
      "demande_sans_alternatives_Mt": 6.25694190486888,
      "demande_evitee_kt": 1877.0825714606638,
      "demande_agricole_Mt": 4.379859333408215,
      "variation_vs_base": -0.05789216317310919
    }
  ],
  "stress_recettes": [
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0,
      "baisse_prix": 0,
      "ratio_recettes": 1,
      "variation_recettes": 0
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0,
      "baisse_prix": 0.1,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.9,
      "variation_recettes": -0.09999999999999998
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0,
      "baisse_prix": 0.2,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.8,
      "variation_recettes": -0.19999999999999996
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0,
      "baisse_prix": 0.3,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.7,
      "variation_recettes": -0.30000000000000004
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.05,
      "baisse_prix": 0,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.95,
      "variation_recettes": -0.050000000000000044
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.05,
      "baisse_prix": 0.1,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.855,
      "variation_recettes": -0.14500000000000002
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.05,
      "baisse_prix": 0.2,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.76,
      "variation_recettes": -0.24
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.05,
      "baisse_prix": 0.3,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.6649999999999999,
      "variation_recettes": -0.3350000000000001
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.1,
      "baisse_prix": 0,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.9,
      "variation_recettes": -0.09999999999999998
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.1,
      "baisse_prix": 0.1,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.81,
      "variation_recettes": -0.18999999999999995
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.1,
      "baisse_prix": 0.2,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.7200000000000001,
      "variation_recettes": -0.2799999999999999
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.1,
      "baisse_prix": 0.3,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.63,
      "variation_recettes": -0.37
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.2,
      "baisse_prix": 0,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.8,
      "variation_recettes": -0.19999999999999996
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.2,
      "baisse_prix": 0.1,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.7200000000000001,
      "variation_recettes": -0.2799999999999999
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.2,
      "baisse_prix": 0.2,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.6400000000000001,
      "variation_recettes": -0.3599999999999999
    },
    {
      "baisse_volume": 0.2,
      "baisse_prix": 0.3,
      "ratio_recettes": 0.5599999999999999,
      "variation_recettes": -0.44000000000000006
    }
  ]
}